Meridian Changelog

Model version history and quarterly test results.

v6.11

8 March 2026 Current Production

Tested against 295,026 H2-2025 Land Registry transactions

H2-2025 out-of-sample bulk test

PE5 PE10 PE15 PE20 MdAPE Bias FSD
39.6% 65.4% 79.8% 87.6% 6.7% +1.92% 25.2%

Accuracy by FSD (Fitch) band

Band n PE10 MdAPE Bias
Band A 0
Band B 143,546 70.4% 6.0% -0.7%
Band C 123,787 63.9% 7.0% +1.7%
Band D 27,693 46.4% 11.2% +16.5%

What changed from v6.10

Added spatial comparable pricing from nearby similar properties, weighted by similarity and adjusted for house price growth. +0.55pp PE10.

Also in v6.11: per-property FSD mapped to Fitch classification bands (A–D). FSD lookup table segmented by confidence decile, property type, and price band. Per-property SHAP contributions replacing global feature importance. FSD lookup recalibration against 100,938 backtest properties.

June 2026: proprietary confidence-tier overlay retired; the FSD/Fitch bands are now the sole confidence expression.

v6.7

7 March 2026

What changed

Replaced national ONS House Price Index with a hyperlocal index — postcode-district and property-type-stratified quarterly index built from Land Registry transactions. Largest single accuracy gain in model history: +2.3pp PE10.

v6.6

6 March 2026

What changed

Added predicted bathroom count as a dense feature. National predictor providing 99.4% coverage where EPC records lack bathroom data.

v6.3

6 March 2026

What changed

Added predicted bedroom count and plot area from EPC records. +1.7pp PE10 combined.

v6.1

5 March 2026

What changed

Dynamic model metrics system. Website accuracy stats now driven by quarterly bulk test results, not training metrics.

v6

1 March 2026

Headline metrics

PE10 MdAPE
60.2% 7.8%

What changed

School proximity features (distance to nearest outstanding, good, and any school). Full spatial feature set including flood zones, crime rates, station proximity, and Census 2021 neighbourhood statistics. First version exceeding the Kirchmeyer 50% PE10 minimum.


v5

28 February 2026

Headline metrics

PE10 MdAPE
59.3% 7.93%

What changed

Census 2021 neighbourhood statistics (median household income, employment rate, qualification levels). Income became the single most important feature.


v4

28 February 2026

Headline metrics

PE10 MdAPE
57.1% 8.4%

What changed

Crime rates (total, violent, burglary), station proximity, and flood zone data. First version with full spatial feature set.


v3

1 March 2026

Headline metrics

PE10 MdAPE
59.4% 7.9%

What changed

Previous sale price with HPI temporal adjustment. Single largest feature contribution in model history at this point. PE10 jumped from 45.1% to 59.4% — previous sale price proved to be the most powerful predictor of current value.


v2

February 2026

Headline metrics

PE10 MdAPE
45.1% 11.3%

What changed

First production model. EPC data (floor area, energy rating, construction age), Land Registry transaction history, and basic spatial features.


v1

February 2026

Proof of concept. Basic hedonic model. Not deployed to production.

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